NHThinker Alert – Demographic presidential projections based on NJ Exit Poll Data
Dateline: Friday morning 11/8/2013 01:20am- Update 5pm
Since Tuesday's election night this week, the entire MSM and many GOP pundits have been pointing to Chris Christie's 2013 NJ Exit poll performance, especially his success with Hispanic/Latino voters (53%) and with Black voters (21%). While these are very impressive compared to his 2009 governor's exit poll performance, they are not as indicative of future performance as other data that was available in the same 2013 NJ exit poll. That data remained dormant and untapped until I figured out how to get a hold of it Thursday afternoon.
That data is the crosstabs to the question: "If these were the candidates for president in 2016, for whom would you vote? Clinton/Christie/(would not vote)/(no answer).” I searched the entire internet- None of the National Election Pool Members nor the NYT nor anyone else had published the racial crosstab to the Christie/Clinton question. I was very annoyed and frustrated that so many would just run with the governor data and start hypothesizing about presidential racial demographic capability when better data was right there for the taking. I started emailing folks in media and I got very fine response from Majorie Connelly, the Survey Editor for the NYT. She promptly ran the crosstab and sent me the data.
The bottom line: For Hispanic/Latino demo, Christie gets 33*%, For Black demo, Christie gets 5*%.
The asterisk is that there are 4% indicating “would not vote” and another 4% that refused to answer to the total between the two main candidates only adds up to 91-92% instead of the typical 97-99% of the recent past actual presidential elections.
Christie's showing against Clinton for Hispanic/Latino demo puts him right between McCain (21%) and Bush (an amazing 43%). The NJ exit polls were unwilling to show data for Romney/Obama crosstab. One can likely assume that Romney did worse than McCain with Hispanics/Latinos in NJ- but I have not been able to get a number.
Christie's showing against Clinton for Black demo puts Christie(5%) right in the same ballpark as Romney (4%). Both McCain (8%) and Bush (an amazing 17%) did significantly better than Christie is currently projected to be.
I think the bottom line is when there are two old white guys as the choice of Republican and Democrat, Republicans have shown that they can hit somewhat significant Hispanic and Black demo percentages.
With Obama, and now the projection for Clinton in this NJ data, is not very encouraging, at least, not for Christie. That is my interpretation, anyway.
The other factor is that the NJ data for the 2013 gov election compared to the 2012 presidential- had 40% fewer total voters, 4% fewer Democrats, voters <$30K per family dropped from 15% of voters to 9%. All of these factors could potential point to the 2013 Christie/Clinton question actually overestimating a Republicans performance because the electorate is more Republican and independent with significant fewer lower income voters than in a presidential year.
See chart and data attachment. http://i1185.photobucket.com/albums/z349/nhthinker/non-white-vote_zps44e49974.jpg
Let me know what you think.
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